Gun Violence in 2025: Why the “New Normal” Is Still Too High

J Jesus Prado
Oct 4
3 min read

Over the past few years, headlines have pointed to encouraging news: gun homicides in the U.S. are beginning to decline. However, beneath the relief, researchers warn that what many are calling progress still leaves us with an unacceptably high “new normal” compared to where we were just a few years ago.

Gun Deaths Have Fallen, But Stay Elevated

In 2023, the U.S. firearm homicide rate decreased to 5.6 per 100,000 people, down from 6.7 in 2021, the peak year of the pandemic. However, that rate remains significantly higher than the 4.4 per 100,000 recorded in 2019, resulting in thousands more lives lost each year. According to the CDC, there were over 48,000 gun-related deaths in 2022, nearly 8,000 more than in 2019. Firearms were involved in 79% of homicides and 55% of suicides, highlighting that the crisis affects both violence against others and self-harm.

Progress in Cities, But Not a Return to Safety

Cities have experienced some of the sharpest improvements. Reports show that gun homicides decreased by 16% in major cities in 2024 compared to pandemic highs, and mass shootings declined by nearly 30%. Overall, violent crime was 14% lower in the first half of 2025 than during the same period in 2019. Still, residents often do not feel safer. The Associated Press notes that many communities continue to face elevated violence levels compared with the pre-2019 period, meaning today’s “improvements” are based on record-breaking years rather than the lower baselines that previously defined normal life.

The Youth Crisis

For children and teenagers, the story is even more alarming. Firearm deaths among young people increased by 46% between 2019 and 2021, rising from 2.4 to 3.5 per 100,000. While this number has since stabilized, it has not declined. In 2023, seven children each day lost their lives to firearms.

Students delve into dialogue and design during the Visioning Beyond Violence program, utilizing art as a tool to spark conversation, foster connection, and promote community healing.

The burden falls disproportionately on Black youth, whose firearm death rate is 11.7 per 100,000, far higher than that of White peers. Since 2019, the share of youth firearm deaths affecting Black children has grown from 35% to 46%.

A Nationwide Trauma

The ripple effects go beyond the numbers. According to a national survey, over half of U.S. adults have experienced gun-related incidents firsthand, whether as victims, witnesses, or through a family member. Nearly 60% of teens worry about a school shooting. The U.S. Surgeon General recently called gun violence an “urgent public health crisis,” emphasizing that, although progress has been made since the peak of the pandemic, the baseline level of harm remains unacceptably high.

What These Numbers Mean

The data tells a clear story: yes, gun violence is trending downward from the historic highs of 2020–2021. But the “floor” has shifted upward. Communities are now living with higher everyday exposure to gun violence than they did even five years ago.

At Visioning Beyond Violence, this reality frames our work. It’s why we continue to create spaces where communities can imagine alternatives to violence, through art, dialogue, and healing-centered education. Even as the numbers rise and fall, the human need to transform trauma into vision remains constant.

Gun violence prevention requires more than statistics; it requires imagination, courage, and community. Together, we can disrupt the “new normal” and create safer schools, neighborhoods, and futures for our children.

Together, we are visioning beyond violence, one story, one panel, one conversation at a time. Keep the movement growing. Explore our free toolkit, bring a workshop to your community, or fuel this work with a donation.

Because what we can imagine, we can create.

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